This is the first week since the beginning of November that I haven't been organizing some Walker recall-related work -- canvassing, public-space circulating and/or phoning. It's been quite a ride, which left little time for posting here. The first thing to say now is THANKS for all of the support and good wishes from around the country. That has been a tremendous boost.
The second thing is that, despite well-meaning diaries and comments here, and even more inflated rumors on FB, please don't believe any recall-signature totals that you hear before Tuesday. We will have enough to force the election, with a substantial margin for challenges. Below the fold I have a bit of real data to share, as well as a general update on what comes next, but the petitions are still being tallied, so the total is not yet known.
In no special order:
1. The numbers. We are all anxious to hear the total. If I were in charge, I would have given more frequent updates, since I value volunteer buy-in over the effort to spur more work through uncertainty of success. However, I'm not in charge, and I understand why the committee chose the latter course. (They are now using the announcement to raise funds. If that works, more power to them.)
So yesterday there was a very large number being posted and re-posted on FB, with no evident sourcing. Today a prominent union leader apparently gave her estimate.
But this is the official line from the recall committee, via Dem Party Chair Mike Tate:
Seeing several updates with a supposed count of recall signatures. Let me assure you anything you see or hear prior to Tuesday is in no way accurate. It is dangerous and raises hopes needlessly to share rumor that has no basis in fact. We said we are on track to hit or surpass 720k. Pretty good. Pls pass on.
That's good enough for me.
To put the numbers in context, we need 540,000 -- 25 percent of the vote in the 2010 gubernatorial election -- to force the election. Originally the committee was shooting for 600,000 to have some in reserve if state election officials find invalid ones. Remember that we only had 60 days to do this work, and half a million sigs is a big number, unprecedented in Wisconsin.
In the initial weeks it was clear we would exceed 600,000, so the committee set a public target of 720,000. If half a million is big, nearly three-quarters million is huge. It's about three-quarters of the vote that Dem Tom Barrett polled against Walker in 2010. But the committee wouldn't have set that target if they didn't think we could reach it. So, as Tate said, it's fairly safe to assume we'll be over that. But by a little or a lot -- we need to wait and see.
Either way this is a tremendous outpouring of revulsion for Walker, and should make national donors think twice about putting good money in after bad (Ohio).
2. More numbers. I am a volunteer organizer in Dane County, where Madison is located. The population, including children and other non-voters, is just under a half-million. In the 2010 election, Barrett got 150k votes out of 220k total.
A hard number that I can share is that we have collected substantially more that 150k signatures in Dane County. I know this from seeing the tallies in the two offices where petitions are being collected. Now if No. 1 above didn't keep you from speculating about the statewide total, you might do a rough calculation: If there are more sigs than Dem votes in Dane County, and the Dem candidate got about a million votes statewide, it stands to reason that there should be more than a million sigs statewide.
I have no idea what the actual total is, but there's good reason to doubt that approach. That's because not only is Dane a very blue county, but it is also one of the places around the nation where the Obama/OFA model has really flourished, with about 20 robust teams in place. OFA itself, for good reasons, did not participate in signature gathering. But the volunteers in the OFA-affiliated teams do a lot more than OFA's bidding, working hard on many state and local races that are under the national radar. So those teams alone knocked on more than 100,000 doors in the last two months.
Madison, of course, is also the capital, where a disproportionate number of public workers live, and they have been active through their unions, OFA-related teams or just on their own. And we were fortunate that the state party hired one of the most talented organizers in the state, one Nick Niles, to run the county field operation.
So I would expect us to do somewhat better here than in other places because of the strong organizing infrastructure -- of which I'm proudly a participant -- and our close view of Walker.
3. Celebrate with us. If the signature total is 720k, that's a staggering achievement and powerful sign of the electorate's feeling. Anything higher will be truly amazing. So Tuesday should be a very good day. We'll be celebrating at Madison's beautiful F.L. Wright-inspired Monona Terrace, starting at 5 p.m. CT. I wish everyone who has followed and supported this effort could attend. Failing that, you can tune in to Ed Schultz on MSNBC, as he is scheduled to do a live broadcast from the event.
4. After Tuesday. Despite the major achievement we are about to celebrate, the fight to rid Wisconsin of Scott Walker is only in the first turn. There are months more to go. Your continuing attention and support will help a lot. Many thanks to Chris Bowers for posting news and info on how out-of-staters can help.
We don't yet know when the election will be, in part because state election officials, in a attempt to tamp down GOP efforts to cast doubt on the recall process and in response to a Waukesha County GOP judge's order, are buying and employing new software to review the signatures. The law gives election officials 31 days to determine the "sufficiency" of a recall petition. However, when reviewing petitions for Senate recalls last year, election officials asked for and received court permission to extend that window. They will certainly do so again.
Then there is the small matter of the election itself. Walker has already been trotting around the country raising money (while of course complaining that Dems are raising out-of-state money). Standard donation limits do not apply after a recall petition is launched, so big donors -- including Swift Boat bankroller Bob Perry of Texas, who gave $250k -- have opened their wallets. Perhaps a great showing on Tuesday will give deep-pocketed Rethugs a bit of pause, but Walker will have a mountain of cash regardless. The election will be a chance, in Citizens United world, to see how much money can buy. Walker's already on the air, but there's no sense that his ads are moving many voters (though it's very early to make any judgments on that).
After Tuesday we should get a clearer picture of who our candidate might be. Sen. Tim Cullen of Janesville is running. Though he took part in the Fab 14's journey to Rockford last winter, he's one of the most conservative members of the caucus. Former Dane County CEO Kathleen Falk is also running. She is a strong progressive, but is known less for policy success than for destructive squabbling with the (also progressive) Madison mayor, and for two unsuccessful runs at state office, including one featuring a bitter primary against a very popular Dem. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is hinting he'll make another try. His recent loss, which followed a lackluster campaign, raises questions about his chances. There is also talk about Sen. Herb Kohl, though given his age (76) and the fact that he'd have to vacate his Senate seat a few months early -- and the fact that he hasn't expressed much interest -- make a run unlikely. Another possibility is U.S. Rep. Ron Kind, who survived the 2010 GOP wave but is not well-known around the state.
Apart from all of those, many Dems still hope Russ Feingold can be coaxed into making the race. A few weeks ago his 2010 campaign manager asked supporters to make videos imploring Russ to run; he shut that down immediately. So no one is getting hopes up there.
Finally, and to me most hopefully, there's former U.S. Rep. Dave Obey. He retired from Congress, citing understandable weariness with D.C. politics, but he has been outspoken about Walker and even left the door open to running when asked. At 72, he's not a lot younger than Kohl, but appears to be much more vigorous and engaged in the struggle. If you want to give him a nudge, check him out on FB.
It does seem pretty clear that there will be a primary. Echoing the great Ed Garvey, I think that's healthy, though it will inevitably spur a Democrats-in-disarray meme in the media.
One candidacy does seem locked in, and that's Mahlon Mitchell, the firefighters union head, for lieutenant governor. He made some noise about running for governor, then met with the party and since then has been quiet. Though a great speaker and fresh (African-American) face, he's young and has never held office. We know his views on labor, but not on the many other issues at play -- education, environment, transportation, BadgerCare, voter suppression and on and on. So he is now the consensus choice for lieutenant governor. If he wins and can develop a well-rounded policy view, he could go far.
5. Go Pack. The game has started, and I need to go. Thanks for reading, and again for all the support you've given us.